Every year, taking a page from Art Bell, I take predictions for what will happen in the upcoming year. If you have a prediction, something you know or feel will happen in 2011, post it here (please no "gimmies," predictions involving me, or predictions that could get the authorities on my ass). On Dec 31, 2010, we'll take those predictions and see if they happened.
PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE no Prediction that'll get me a visit from Government Agencies? Please?
So, did the predictions y'all made for 2010 come true?
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pazi_ashfeather offered:
*Republicans will gain at least ten senate seats in the election this year. And more.... DING DING DING
*Some large and visible element of the conservative movement here in the US will go public with an openly insurrectionist or secessionist message. Since this is vague, let me add a few qualifiers: It must have a distinctive moniker or cohesive mantle of group identity (like the Teabaggers) even if it isn't a single coherent entity. A single politician, or even a run of the usual suspects (Bachman, Beck, Palin, et al) does not count; they say stuff like that all the time and while it might be calculated to incite such movements, it does not create them. We are talking about a populist movement that enjoys widespread recognition, even if it is terribly controversial. Its membership must be either strongly associated with such stances in the eyes of the media and the public, or openly claim such motives (even if it is a decentralized movement). This does not have to be true of ALL members; it's enough to be able to mention the group by name (or media nickname/name of charismatic member within) and have people recognize their secessionist or insurrectionist leanings. As far as I can tell, the closest to this would be the Tea Party movement, which the Teabaggers became. They have the name, the people, and while this is a stretch, the insurrectionist message (They definitely seem to have that "Throw the bums out right this @!#%(& minute!" attitude). I'll give this one a shakey DING DING DING.
ghostangel offered:
*The next generation Nintendo DS will come out sometime late next year. Looks like the Nintendo 3DS will be out in March of 2011.BZZT
*I will have slogged through some more German and at least be able to read and write it at intermediate or approaching Expert. What say you, Ghostie?
sailorrob offered:
*Sarah Palin will once again do something incredibly stupid and potentially psychotic that all her fans will think is wonderful but anyone with a brain would be WTF about. This is a definite DING DING DING
soltice offered:
*2010 will be a banner year for the Android platform. High power phones, an open market, and 2.1 will make it a serious competitor to the iPhone. This is a definite DING DING DING
*Chrome OS will largely flop. Few manufacturers will take up the platform, preferring instead Windows XP or Win 7 Starter edition. I'm gonna give this a BZZT for now, as the OS hasn't been released yet.
*Android powered eReaders and internet tablets will begin to eat away at the netbook market. While the Kindle is still the Big Name in E-Readers, the Nook isn't doing too badly, and there are now a few more E-Readers out there running Android. It may not have the saturation the Kindle does, yet, but I'll definitely give this a DING DING DING
*Apple will sue someone for infringing on it's multitouch patent. Apple will lose in the higher courts. Yeah, it did. Multiple times. HTC, Motorola and Nokia. Don't think there's been any loss yet, because non of them have gone to trial, so DING DING DING on the suing, and BZZT on losing (so far).
*Hardware acceleration in the WebOS, Android, and (to a lesser extent) Blackberry OS will make them major competitors to current mobile gaming platforms -- the Nintendo DS and the PSP. Retro games, emulators, and the always connected nature of smartphones will lead the charge.This one is a tough one...the whole Smartphone revolution is clipping into the handheld market, Nintendo and Sony are still doing bumper business in the portables market. I'll give this a BZZT for 2010, but I think their day is coming, and handheld consoles may not be long for this world.
*Kubuntu will continue to suck in 10.04. Marginal improvements will be made, but the tide of suck will not turn until 10.10. DING DING DING
*Blackberry OS will still be the dominate smartphone OS at the end off 2010, but it will experience a market contraction in the corporate sector. Well, it seems that actually Symbian is the dominant Mobile OS as of Q3 of 2010 (36% of phones), but Android has over taken Blackberry in 2010 25% to 15%. BZZT
achernow offered:
*Android will gain enough market share to pose a serious threat to Apple. Blackberry, while still relevant in the enterprise, will quickly lose on the consumer side of the market. See soltice's prediction above. DING DING DING
*Because of Android, and to a lesser extent Blackberry, Apple will be forced to make changes to the iPhone. They will end AT&T exclusivity. Unfortunately the only other carrier that will offer the iPhone will be T-Mobile because they will not produce a CDMA version. T-Mo's 3G network, will also disappoint iPhone users. Verizon, Sprint, US Cell, et. al. won't offer it for a few more years when their LTE networks, and the 4G iPhone become available. They will be forced to abandon the App approval process, thereby opening up the iPhone platform to more developers in response to the sharp increase in available Android apps & Cydia apps for Jailbroken iPhones. They will abandon the notification system in the iPhone OS in favor of true background apps. In typical Apple fashion, though, this will only be available to people who own 3GS and the new 3GS+ iPhones, leaving 2G and 3G users behind. That's a LOT of predicitons, but sadly are all BZZTs.
*The iSlate will be a disappointment. It will feature a "new" OS that won't run any iPhone OS or Mac OS apps. The iSlate became the wildly popular iPad with iOS on it. BZZT
*A revised Apple TV, Roku and Boxee boxes will gain market share and start to eat away at the cable companies, especially after the FCC releases new guidelines for set-top boxes. From what I can tell, the boxes aren't haven't eaten badly into the cable systems, so I'm going to give this a BZZT
*The pending merger of NBC & Comcast will become meaningless by the end of the year. DING DING DING
*The FCC will pass net neutrality. It will be completely not what AT&T et al want and will actually provide reasonable consumer protections. After passing NN, the FCC will turn to abolishing consumption based billing for internet access as they reclassify ISPs as "common carriers." Sadly, the Net Neutrality objective failed. BZZT
*To spur rural broadband build-outs, the FCC will begin the process to force the separation of ISP from the lines coming into the house. This will allow third parties to build the rural networks without telco intervention. Congress will pass legislation to provide these companies subsidies, and money from the USF, to build the networks. In fact, in the DSL world, a gigantic merger between Speakeasy, Covad and Megapath has put MORE lines in the hand of an ISP. BZZT
*We will see countless delays in the ENDA DING DING DING, and repeals of DoMA BZZT and DADT DING DING DING. Because the Republicans will gain a few seats in the Senate we'll see them crammed through and passed in the legislative session between the elections in November and when the new members take over. Despite it only applying to DADT, this is a big DING DING DING
*Health Reform will pass both chambers of congress after going through conference committee. Unfortunately, the bill will look a lot like the Senate's version of the bill, will contain Stupak, and no public option. Almost to the letter: DING DING DING
*However, in exchange for the public option in the bill, House Democrats will demand, and get, the following: A mid 2010 start date for the mandates that drop pre-existing conditions, demand equal coverage DING DING DING, etc. An immediate start to the "exchanges" by utilizing the existing exchange that is set up for Federal employees DING DING DING. A version of Medicare-for-all in the exchange, that is basically the public option they dropped from the bill BZZT.
*On the plus side of all of this, there will be a swift rift that forms in the Republican party in this election cycle dividing the Beck/Palin supporters with the rest of the Party, Dems will make substantial gains in the House of Representatives, and the Republican party will be severely wounded as they go into the primary season for the 2012 Presidential elections. In fact, the Republican Party seems to have embraced (although unwillingly) the Tea Party and used it to take them to new heights. BZZT
*We will see at least one television network go bust by the end of 2010. BZZT Still all there, including Fox.
*Or it will decide to drop it's affiliates and go direct-to-cable BZZT
*Leno-in-primetime will not be renewed DING DING DING. NBC will trade out the 10pm hour to affiliates for a 5th hour of Today.BZZT The hour was devoted to network programming, but not Today.
*Most NBC stations will move their 11pm news up to 10pm. Some will expand it to 1:35, as NBC will keep the start time of Conan at 11:35.BZZT
* I will either change jobs or finally get my own production house off the ground. Last I heard this was a BZZT but there's always next year!
* I will make progress on making some changes in my life for the better. ;) DING DING DING
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